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Broncos vs Ravens: Free NFL Spread Pick, 9-23-2018

Denver Broncos (2-0) vs Baltimore Ravens (2-0)

NFL: Sunday, September 23, 1:00 PM EST

Line: Ravens -5.5, 44

Last Meeting: 9/13/15  BAL 13 DEN 19

NFL Spread Pick by Peter Trell


The Denver Broncos (2-0) travel east to take on the Baltimore Ravens (1-1) for an AFC/NFC clash at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.  The Broncos have gotten off to a nice start with their new quarterback, Chase Keenum under center. Denver beat the Seahawks in Week 1 and Oakland in Week 2 but they are (0-1-1) against the spread. The Ravens blew out Buffalo in Week 1, 47-3 and lost to the Bengals on the road in Week 2 and are (1-1) ATS. Current odds list the Ravens as -5 point home favorites with a Total of 44.

 

Broncos are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games in September

Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games

Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss

Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings

The Broncos are proving to be a tough nut to crack, as both their wins this season were via fourth-quarter comebacks. Broncos quarterback Case Keenum hasn’t been spectacular, but he has made throws when it mattered the most.  The Broncos offense ranks 4th in total yards per game and 2nd in rushing yards per game. Running Back Phillip Lindsay had 107 yards on 14 carries against Oakland and we expect to see the same against a Ravens defense that allows 95 RPG.  Defensively, it’s all about the pass rush for Denver. They held Oakland to just 92 rushing yards but allowed Derek Carr to complete 29 of 32 for 288 yards with a TD, while sacking him just once. All-Pro DE Von Miller has four sacks in the first two games and is going up against an offensive line that gave up four sacks against the Bengals.

Baltimore’s veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been throwing the ball well so far this season, 612 yards, 5 TD’s 2 INT’s but the offense has not been running the ball well.  In their first two games, Baltimore is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry to rank third-worst in the NFL. Another question mark for Baltimore is LB CJ Mosley. Mosley exited last game vs the Bengals with a bone bruise and it’s unclear if he will play on Sunday.  The loss of Mosley was devastating for the Ravens in the first half vs the Bengals, as they allowed 28 points in his absence.

Both teams have a lot of question marks surrounding their offensive and defensive units.  Denver does have the “X-factor” in LB Von Miller. If Miller can put pressure on Joe Flacco and make him uncomfortable, this could be the key to the game.  Case Keenum has yet to put together a solid performance for the Broncos but if they can play solid defense and run the ball effectively, controlling the clock, I like Denver to cover the +5.5 point spread on the road.  

 

Broncos vs Ravens Pick: Broncos +5.5

 

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