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Reds vs Nationals Free MLB Prediction


 

Cincinnati Reds (30-44) at Washington Nationals (46-29)

MLB:  Sunday, June 25th, 1:35 pm EST

Line: Reds +133 | Nationals -153, O/U 10

Last Meeting: 6/24/17 WAS 18 CIN 3

Free MLB Pick by Peter Trell

 

Trends:

Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter

Over is 11-1-2 in Reds last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

Over is 10-2 in Nationals last 12 overall

 

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington

 

Two of the top hitting teams in baseball square off in Washington for Game 3 of this three-game series.  The Nationals have taken Games 1 and 2 and Cincinnati hopes to forget about their 18-3 loss on Saturday and pick up a win to avoid the sweep.  

 

The Reds haven’t been able to get things going and have dropped four straight after an 18-3 loss at Washington on Saturday.  Cincinnati was up 4-0 in Game 1 but squandered the lead and lost in the 10th inning, 6-5.  Bad teams usually find a way to lose a game in the late innings and that is exactly what the Reds did on Friday.  

 

The Reds will send out Scott Feldman in Game 3 and he has gone (5-5) with a 4.20 ERA in 15 starts on the year, including 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.  Feldman is fresh off a 7-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday.  One positive for the Reds this season is they are productive on offense.  The Reds rank 9th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.92 RPG, while also ranking 11th in hitting with a team .260 average and 8th in homers with 103.

 

Over is 3-0-1 in Feldman’s last 4 road starts

 

The only team in the National League East that can beat the Nationals is the Nationals.  They have a commanding 9.0 game lead over the Braves.  Washington has one of the most feared offenses in the league, ranking 2nd with a team .279 batting average, 2nd with 729 hits and 4th in home runs with 116.  Ryan Zimmerman (.352) and Daniel Murphy (.343) are currently #1 and #3 in top batting average in baseball.  

 

The Achilles heel for Washington this season has been their bullpen.  The Nats pen ranks 27th in MLB with a 4.95 ERA.  I fully expect the Nationals to sure up their pen by the trade deadline if they expect to make a deep run in the playoffs.  

Tanner Roark gets the nod for the Nationals in Sunday’s game and he has gone (6-4) with a 4.88 ERA in 15 starts on the year, including 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA in his last three starts and 3-3 with a 4.82 ERA in eight starts at home.   

Over is 9-2 in Roarks last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

I’m not focused on the moneyline with this matchup but the smart play is Over 10.  Two struggling pitchers take the mound vs two dangerous offenses.  Roark’s day starts, on average, have allowed 11.67 RPG, while Feldman’s day starts have allowed 8.17 RPG and his road starts have averaged just 9.29 RPG.  Take the Over in this matchup and expect the runs to pile up vs these pitchers.  

 

Reds vs Nationals FREE Total Pick: Over 10

Peter Trell is 12-3 this week with his MLB Picks

 

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