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Patriots vs. Eagles Free NFL Betting Pick, 11-17-2019


New England Patriots (8-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)

Sunday, November 17, 2019, 4:25 PM EST

Line: Eagles +3.5, O/U 45

Handicapper: Frank Moone

Pick: New England Patriots -3.5


A Super Bowl LII rematch at Lincoln Financial Field when the Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) host the New England Patriots (-3.5) on Sunday at 4:25 pm EST.  Both teams are off a BYE but the Patriots suffered their 1st loss of the season with a 37-20 loss to the Ravens two weeks ago while the Eagles beat the Bears 22-14.  

New England will look to rebound from a loss all while attempting to exact revenge for their Super Bowl 52 loss to Philadelphia.  The Patriots (6-3 ATS) lead the AFC with a one-loss record and are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games. The Ravens did an excellent job preventing the Patriots running backs from finding big holes with their longest run play going for 10 yards. The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL allowing 87.3 rushing yards per game which is the strength of this defense.  Tom Brady may find some weakness in the Eagles secondary, however, which ranks 16th allowing 239 passing yards per game. Brady and Mohamed Sanu had the BYE week to prepare for Sunday which doesn’t bode well for an Eagles secondary that has been decimated by injuries. The Patriots 1st ranked defense will be key to a victory on the road if they can stop the run.  

Philadelphia’s offense ranks 11th in the NFL averaging 127 rushing yards per game.  The Eagles have leaned on Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders in the running game and their offense thrives when they are effectively running the football.  Jordan Howard is questionable for Sunday which could pose problems offensively as he is the key component to Philadelphia’s offense. The Eagles have won two-straight games and they are fighting to get back into the NFC East race but the injuries have been a struggle all season and now they enter a crucial two-game stretch vs. the Patriots and Seahawks.  Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win and 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings vs. the Patriots. 

Both teams have the benefit of rest but while the Patriots appear to be adding to their team like the addition of Mohamed Sanu, the Eagles continue to subtract players due to injury.  Alshon Jeffrey is also questionable which would leave Carson Wentz with limited receiver options. I would like Philadelphia vs. almost any other team in this spot but the Patriots have the revenge factor and appear healthy.  Philadelphia’s offense is depleted and New England has the NFL’s best record since 2003 after a loss going 40-16 ATS. The Patriots will be determined to get back into the win column and despite playing at home, I don’t like this spot for Philadelphia.  Look for the Patriots to pull ahead late in the game and cover the -3.5 point spread.  

Patriots vs. Eagles Free NFL Pick: New England Patriots -3.5

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